02Cycles

Four phases.
One playbook.

Crypto markets rotate. Allisora does not chase narratives across rotations — it shifts weight across them. The wheel below maps every phase to the playbook for it.

·The Wheel

Built around the live phase.

Hover any quadrant to inspect it. In the fund, only one phase is live at any moment — sizing and direction follow.

Accumulation01
Markup02
Distribution03
Markdown04
ACCMKPDISTMKD
Live
Markdown
04 / 04
·Phase Playbook
Phase 01
Accumulation
Catalyst
First higher low on the weekly + on-chain bottoming → start building long.
Stance
Build long. Low leverage first.
Reads
On-chain capitulation · realized P/L deep negative · LTH cost basis flat
Position
Net long · ≤ 1.5×
Phase 02
Markup
Catalyst
Trend confirmation + breadth across majors → press at conviction.
Stance
Press the trend.
Reads
Realized cap expanding · funding constructive · stables flowing onto exchanges
Position
Full long · ≤ 3×
Phase 03
Distribution
Catalyst
Persistent funding extreme + LTH distribution → reduce, pair longs with hedges.
Stance
Trim. Tighten risk.
Reads
Funding hot · stables thinning · LTH spending into strength
Position
Market-neutral
Phase 04
Markdown
Catalyst
Lower highs + breadth deterioration → flip the book net short.
Stance
Defensive. Short overextended names.
Reads
Realized losses · funding negative · dominance up
Position
Net short · ≤ 2×
Playbook reviewed quarterlyLive phase · Markdown